Special District One’s football ratings shuffled

South Salem leads SD1, ranked #4 in OSAA Power Rankings

Last fall, I wrote a cautionary story about embracing the OSAA power rankings during the season for determining the best football teams in Oregon.  The ranking formula is based on the strength of each team’s schedule during the course of a season, and as a result, those ratings can take large climbs or drops depending on the opponent each week.  In fact, a team can watch their ranking fall with a win against a weak team.

All that said, it is still interesting to examine where Special District One (SD1) teams stand after four weeks of play, and where their rankings might end up based in large part on which teams remain on their schedules.

Here is where the top-four SD1 teams stand as of the games played September 21-22 this season (if you didn’t read above):

1.     South Salem-#4
2.     North Medford-#5
3.     North Salem-#10
4.     South Medford-#14

The other teams lurking below the OSAA’s top 16 include Sheldon (#22), West Salem (#23), Sprague (#32), Roseburg (#37), McNary (#42).

South Salem faces these teams on the remainder of their schedule: vs. West Salem, at McNary, vs. Roseburg, at Sprague, vs. North Salem.

North Medford finishes up this way: vs. Grants Pass, at Roseburg, at Sheldon, vs. McNary, vs. South Medford.

North Salem’s schedule the rest of the season: vs. McNary, at Grants Pass, vs. Sprague, at West Salem, at South Salem.

South Medford’s remaining schedule looks this way: at Sprague, vs. Sheldon, vs. Grants Pass, at Roseburg, vs. South Medford (Spiegelberg Stadium).

Before considering the remaining games, do note that Sheldon might make a run that could catapult them over most of the field by winning and winning and winning. The Irish lost their two non-league games to powerful foes—one from Hawaii (Mililani HS), and defending 6A state champ West Linn.  Both games were blowouts, but margin of victory isn’t a factor in the power rankings.  So IF the Irish can run the table, they would be a top team, bumping off the likes of South Medford and North Medford, and at worst, would finish with the same record as South Salem.

OF NOTE: North Salem and South Salem don’t play Sheldon (as last year) this season along with one of the Medford Schools (South Salem doesn’t face North Medford, same for North Salem and South Medford).  But this scheduling oddity also serves as a twin-edged sword—because even losses to higher ranked teams are better than wins against some of the lowest ranked teams.  The weekly changes in the rankings may give you whiplash—so don’t be surprised if you see a team drop like a rock even as they win a game.  Those are the power rankings, folks.

In closing, keep these things in mind:  lower performing teams will impact better teams somewhat negatively every week—especially if the better teams lose; Sheldon is a wild card that can both help either the Southern Oregon Schools, or the Salem-Keizer Schools, depending on the week; The final game of the year between Sheldon and West Salem (at Sheldon) could have more of an impact on the final conference rankings than you might think.

Enjoy the ride to the end of the regular season, high school football fans. Just remember you have been warned (again) about the power rankings. 

Oh, and remember one last item—teams ranked 1-16 will compete for the state title, while teams 17-32 will participate in the (consolation level) Columbia Cup championships.